Bear Market 2022 Plays Log

It’s not all gloomy in a bear market.

Here are the most memorable plays of 2022, written down. Thanks to the frens who helped with this list.

General play log of Bera Market 2022 (mostly from Q2)

APE: airdrop if you had BAYC/MAYC, and an easy long from $5 to $20 before shorting it to ZERO

Shorting LUNA at the top till single digits, if you trusted GCR to deliver you salvation + shorting UST

Longing LUNC before pump to 0.6, then shorting once weakness happened

LUNA2 airdrop shorting + accumulating before LUNC rerard pump

Shorting LUNC at .5, [REDACTED] giving the call to arms

Bone at 0.9 to 1.2 accumulation before 2.4 on 7fig liquidity

Digidaigakus at 1 Eth before they ran to 8-10Eth floor - And also the corresponding airdrops per waifu NFT. Could have spotted via seeing Gabe’s previous experience, calculating mcap of the NFT collection and aping in early hard

Longing Eth at 3ac liquidation 777 to 2.2k on spot with merge trade + Matic running hard on this as well (matic ultimately a leveraged play on ETH plus Sandeep powers)

OP airdrop long - $0.5-$0.6 GCR tree of life fractal ran to $2 + VELO 10x on low liq on OP eco

Canto airdrop - easy sybil by doing work on testnet

Aptos airdrop - testnet work, easy sybil for 3-4 figs

$BLUR airdrop - using it for sweeping/listing

Genie airdrop - just using it before Uniswap integration

$SUDO airdrop from Sudoswap - providing liquidity on it, creating NFT pools

$XMON runup on decent liquidity - early buys from Messi at $10k while peaking around $50-60k mid year with the announcement/release of Sudoswap

GMX - outperformer in bear market, buying during big nukes this year paid off huge dividends (although it is probably destined to get destroyed by Avi / DeFi Soros style actors)

$BONE/Shibarium - time rugged by devs, but ran a huge multiple from 3AC nuke bottom till peaking around $2.3 on 8 figs of liquidity

Dogechain - airdrop if you PVP’d on it, plays there as well

FTX - FTT / SOL generational shorts and longs due to volatility. Buying SOL NFT top collections right when SOL was at $7-10 also paid off very nicely as on-chain style leveraged longs on SOL, with no liquidation point

$AVAX - shorting top of conference leading deeper into bear market with smol leverage printed very hard

$FTM - shorting it when it was a $1 stablecoin down to the cents

CEL bankruptcy - longing the bankruptcy filing for a decent liquid multiple on a shitcoin

• Why? Tokens locked - people idiotic = MOON

CHZ pump and short from the FTX fallout - Easiest long to take post FTX destruction if you had the balls to keep funds on CEXs afterward

Doge from 0.06 to 0.14 on the Elon takeover weekend - news came out several days before market reacted, highly liquid all-in style play with low leverage would have printed huge

STG having a nice pumpa early year - Once Sisyphus and CT began shilling, it ran the classic Euthanasia Coaster meme with a decent pump

Gobblers as NFTs - could have grinded hard for WL, getting a nice paycheck if you sold the initial hype wave

Klaynosaurs on SOL - 3x’d from mint price

Gear airdrop - Sybil it from last year, was a 4-5fig airdrop if done right + Airdrop fractal giving 30-50% pump if done right

Biggest lessons from the year:

• Always take the free money, aim to be contrarian to the market

  • FTT/SOL shorts were completely unexpected to many but signs were there (even Cobie/High Stakes Capital believing it not to be true despite SBF’s clear degradation of physiognomy as well as stimulant abuse signs)

  • Same with longing LUNC, shorting LUNA top

• The best way to win is to do nothing when you have no edge

  • Wait for good plays to emerge, and act hard on your OWN and NOT BORROWED conviction to get multiples. Borrowed conviction will lead you to the poorhouse, develop your own heuristics to judge plays, otherwise you will lose to the house in the long run

  • Securing initials in a bear market is always a great idea (as opposed to diamondhanding a bull run)

• Even OGs got rekt on FTX - always be paranoid and humble

  • If you eat -90%, you can still come back by waging and waiting for the next expansion + selling feet on OF

  • But if you lose nearly everything, what fucks you is the psychological PTSD and impact of it. Healing psychologically from losses, understanding odds and why it happens will make it much easier to recover from

  • Nearly all OGs who have hit 7-8 figures from small amounts of cash have eaten hard losses - is about how you bounce back and improve that can determine overall odds of success

  • What you have can always be taken away if you fall into pride and arrogance - arrogance online can be funny, but IRL, protect your money with paranoia and humility.

Biggest mindset shifts:

• View NFTs as onchain leveraged longs, with the factor of the team being an additional catalyst for the floor price

• Newstrading with leverage is still a way to get profits in the market, and the edge will eventually exhaust, but hopefully will provide some returns in the next bull market

• The harder you level up IRL with health, routine, mental focus, the easier it is to execute plays and to win in the long term

• When you see rerards run into a coin, rush into it with leverage, and slide that button to the East with haste. That is not irrational

Best personal IRL alpha:

• It’s a bear if you’re not getting good sleep and improving your health in this downphase, you’re fucking up (especially if you left the market with bulla gains)

• Red light for screen time has stopped the vision degradation it tends to cause - 1-2h a day at minimum, $100-20

Favorite CT accounts:

• Jezza - spoonfed a lot of great plays early, and ethical

• Smiley - called a lot of the bera plays accurately, best schizo racist pedo on CT (okay I’ll come clean)

• Silico - he will fuck you and you will like it

• Tree of Alpha - huge news plays and insights into an 8 fig player with no TA but only news as an edge

• GCR - one of the greatest, but you need to interpret his tweets as he writes in riddles in order to prevent PnDs on his own messages

• Heart - outperformance at its finest

• Nachotrades - good shit

• Worst Contrarian - one of the best

Thesis for next echo bubble:

• Dino coins don’t have as many sellers as 2020 ponzis, Defi 1.0 could catch bids (BTRFLY caught a bid recently)

• Clearly if nance gets fucked long term it will force liquidity move towards plays like GMX, GNS, and other DeFi trading protocols

• Will be relatively obvious when the bid is starting and simply have to pick it up early

NFTs for the future:

• Pudgy Penguins recovered well from 3AC, cryptodickbutts have a clear idiotic cult and meme potential, bullish on Miladies w GCR holding 500

P.S. I will have what I consider to be a decent (great, really) article on cults and crypto soon, so subscribe above and you’ll get first dibs on it when it comes.

P.P.S. Enjoy the bear market, it’ll plant the seeds for the next bull market.