The Likely Plays of 2023
This be a brain dump of thoughts/ideas/forecasts that I expect to take place over 2023-2024. Mainly focusing on 2023, with a bunch of different ideas on differing time frames.
Let’s get into this:
Start by just accumulating shekels if you don’t have enough of them
Biggest bear market alpha is to make money for the bull market and not to squeeze cash out of an empty faucet. A couple months of a good bull can erase all your mistakes or lift your life to new heights.
Assuming you run a 100x by pure luck next bull cycle, is that enough to lift you into a NW tier that you can sustain living costs without eating into your principle, with the % of your NW in assets that will also beat inflation with time? Questions for the universe.
Shorting high inflation ‘21/22 coins, while longing the dinos with no more sellers
As simple as DCAing ETH/BTC spot while having low leverage shorts on coins such as OP, MATIC, SAND, MANA, clear vaporware with inflated mcaps - don’t get liquidated, and they should print to some degree
This play will not make generational wealth, but compounded can give you a great starting point at the next bull market.
BTC/ETH dominance will continue to rise
Shitcoins will fade, and the liquidity in them will shift towards the 2 dinos that we still rely on in this scam space to make money with.
There will be a bunch of NFT pumps, see if you can spot them early. Likely next year, there will be at least 3-5 good collections that you can use to get some multiples on. It’ll be relatively obvious if you’re paying attention
Monad - coming soon, supported by Cobie, is cool group, we’ll see how it goes
Move2Earn / Dance2Earn - a ponzi based around movement will likely take shape once again, STEPN had a good run, others will try to take that ball of liquidity for themselves
Gaming Crypto - bunch of old companies will invent new tokens/NFTs/cash grabs in order to take advantage of the crypto hype, and raise liquidity in a dying marketplace. Simple as.
DOGE - DOGE cannot die, and DOGE has a chance to truly be a mainstay of crypto (it already is, but more) due to its immaculate conception, and abandonment from Musk.
The bull case for DOGE can be found in the scratch lottery tickets in the gas stations all across the world, and the queues into casinos, scratch ticket centres, you name it.
DOGE may never hit ATHs again - but it will have a revenge pump strong enough that people will believe it will - at which point, it probably will collapse before the next bull market.
GCR’s public forecast on the DOGE PoS transition is likely to come true with time, and playing that will give multiples if done right. (Both spot and leverage). High conviction on this due to the forgettability of the midwit and its repeated manifestations in history.
Further development of NFTs on Matic - if it doesn’t go to ZERO
No L1/L2 alt is safe (besides maybe ETH)
Arbitrum and $ARBI airdrop finally - One of the best L2s on ETH, likely to release a token at some point, and the ecosystem coins will likely have vicious PnDs to take part in the moment the airdrop does happen due to the injection of liquidity in the space. Depends on the FDV, vesting, as well as general sentiment when it happens, but if the stars align this should yield some good plays
ECHO BUBBLE:
It will happen, and it simply will be BTC going from the price bottom (likely to be slightly lower than here) to a higher range bound, before testing the mid lows of the range established from the move up
The play is simply to buy the right alts (or just buy ETH first) as BTC bottoms, rotating into alts as ETH begins to laggard behind BTC, taking the increased liquidity of your bags and trying to time more pumps on whatever narratives are at play then.
The rising BTC/ETH dominance means in order to avoid this fallout, don’t buy altcoins and only get into ETH when we finally get new tardfi lows in 2023. Will likely happen. The hikes are NOT priced in yet and to say they are is idiocy.
Fractal is unlikely to play out as a carbon copy of what everyone expects, but will likely give a chance for players still remaining to multiply their gambling chips before the next expansion
Whatever the masses expect, it usually won’t happen. Build your heuristics and edge by knowing the 2nd and 3rd order effects of the consequences of human actions, and understand how the reflexivity of human behaviour creates results we wouldn’t usually understand, due to the distortion of reality we experience as participants (wow, big word salad)
Look for the Lollapalooza effect of cognitive biases coming together to trigger the bubble, and be early to it, don’t be late.
Summer 2023 being the main time for the bubble means:
You got Q1-Q2 to accumulate them baggies. Wage, eat lentils (may do a thread on bera market recipes if folks want it), fast, cold showers, whatever the fuck it takes for you to have some capital to use in the market before the bubble kicks off.
Q3, sacrifice your weekends, get into good shape and a good routine so you’re ready for the grind once more. If you are burned out mentally/physically when the bubble starts, thanks for the exit liquidity.
Make sure to secure your profits and not to give them back to the market or to any hacks/scam devs etc etc
You can probably begin accumulating coins Q1-Q2, then shift towards perps/leverage carefully when Summer begins, looking for new ponzis that are launched around then with nascent narratives that can be used to convince people to pump them further
Don’t be the last one to sell.
Death of SOL incoming - y00ts as the first sign of it happening
If the main collections on SOL continue to port over, it’s game over for the ecosystem itself - some collections should survive on different chains.
Bullish on the communities, bearish on the chain itself - if the FDV/vesting destroys it, other chains will come and take its place going forward.
Don’t short this shit, just look for where the capital will go and see if you can siphon some of that liquidity into your bank account.
SOL won’t go to zero like LUNA, don’t try to squeeze another 80% short out of something that gave us TWO 80% shorts for free.
If you shorting something that’s already gone down so much, what’s your heuristic?
Time-based capitulation is here/coming soon - be patient, don’t fade away
Only those with conviction in the future can survive till the next cycle
View crypto as a digital nation, it will continue to grow, albeit with more scams. Capital must move into new markets, do not leave now
Wanna leave? Do the ultimate cope: “I’ll stay till X”, then when X hits, stay till Y. Until the next expansion.
If you haven’t made it yet, why leave? Just spend an hour a week reading about crypto and you’ll be ahead of the new wave of participants when they come.
The case for a new cycle - human greed is endless and human beings are forgetful creatures
What crypto simply needs is a complete reset and wipe from the mind of public consciousness.
Can any of you remember the Top 10 Pop Hits of say, May 1999?
Can any of you remember the huge crashes in equities in emerging markets, such as the 2000s Asian Tiger crisis, the -85% of Thailand’s stock market against the USD in the 1980s, the capitulation prices of London real estate post WW2?
Very few things can stick in human memory for long enough. Look at how quickly we’ve forgotten about coof and instead now are obsessed about Ukraine/Tate/etc etc etc.
Simply wait for the inevitable collective amnesia of our species to wipe the pain of the bear cycle away, and we will start anew
There WILL be another institution greedy enough to try and fleece retail into this system, and there will be factors (QE, hype, desperation) that will push folks to dump their life savings into something new.
Patience will reward those willing to play this game. 99% will fail. Try not to fail.
Look for the loosening of Central Banks on liquidity sometime next year
As Soros has said MULTIPLE times - defaults and breakages in the financial system are the NORMALITY, not the exception. Things will break this year, and get more insane.
When things break, that will likely be the sign for banks to begin releasing their grip on the liquidity faucet - and remember how retarded everyone is, they will overdo it once more.
Rate hikes will eventually end, and there will be some time before liquidity injections begin once more, but they will happen sooner or later.
CBDC + UBI will happen in our lifetime, and the 2nd/3rd order effects correspondingly should lead to some liquidity entering our zero-sum blockchain gambling casino.
It can’t be that easy to make money as a speculator, but it is. The hard part is knowing when to enter the fire and harness the power of the market
Volume/sentiment is nearly at where it is to bottom and start anew
Crypto will not be going anywhere - the fundamental use case of being able to send and interact with money without a centralized third party will forever be a use case
The other use case of PvP speculation? Give it some time and we’ll eventually get there again.
Look for the emergence of new cults and leaders in the space for people to have blind faith into
We will need a new mass of men to ape into the next ponzi and to trust a leader with blind faith for us to recover.
Wait for the next AntiChrist, and keep an eye out for him, he/she/they be coming cousin
We only need a couple of institutions/figures to begin shilling crypto again, and the reflexive nature of human behaviour will start once more.
Look for the bear market to finally break its trend to some degree - then the echo bubble begins.
Every trend must die, and eventually, BTC’s selling off will stop, and we will likely then crab there for quite a while before the next expansion.
Your ponzis are dependant on global factors that are not in your control. Be patient, and wait for the stars to align to once gain make some shekels.
Expect further adoption by various nations (BTC/Stables etc)
Look to nations with geopolitical conflict, but the technology to incorporate stablecoins easily via cheap phones and internet
Lebanon is still overrun with inflation, African countries will have a huge usage of stablecoins (probably already is using them to a large degree), and any developing nation trying to preserve their purchasing power will need stablecoins
Expect a growth of fiat stables that aren’t USD - in particular, high conviction that SGD will become a highly valuable stablecoin due to its stability and strength against both the dollar as well as other fiat currencies and its government pushing its transition to CBDCs faster than other countries
Thread on SGD stablecoin thesis coming soon - why it is (nearly) the perfect stablecoin play to hold over a 2-3 decade period, and how it can reach parity and beat GBP, EUR, CAD, and its other old colonial masters.
Nanny state, controlled ponzi, low level of bagholders (Sg citizens are net positive RFV vs entrenched in debt like Burgers/Bongs/Euros) that have been selectively bred to be submissive and controllable by an elite ruling state determined to be the next Switzerland + Sarong Party Girl asian waifus convincing gripto bros and new money to come over = near perfect higher tier ponzi to enter if done right
Separately bullish on vice-related businesses in Singapore in lieu of GCR’s generation moonshot thesis
Music NFTs may finally begin having their moment in the sun (fingers crossed)
Similar to how NFTs had their nascent moment with Cryptokitties, and then punks and various collections started getting attention before the 2021 bull
This should hopefully happen when a decent recording artist actually releases music that inspires collection and non speculation, then leading to speculation on it in the future
Most music NFTs currently are absolute cash grabs, with very little culture or relevance to the actual crypto participants that might have the firepower to speculate and push the FP of such collections to new heights.
GCR tweet is relevant here
We have to wait for some actually good music however, that commemorates and locks in the culture of CT into the blockchain
If/when we get the final cycle lows (10-14k BTC personally, ala Smiley), that’s when you should snap up some blue chip NFT collections
Pudgies, Punks, etc
Japanese NFTs clearly have scam pumps that can and should be taken advantage of
To win this, you literally just need to research the right wallets that are early to these collections and scam pumps, and track their activity and see what collections they’re collecting/flipping on chain. It’s not that crazy difficult.
Further NFT acceptance, and likely early use cases of Real World Assets linked to on chain NFTs will happen before the next bull cycle.
Imagine a property developer instead of having to go to a bank to raise capital, instead launches a mint out giving NFT holders ownership of whatever property is being developed
Imagine Sudoswap type NFT pools for houses - Unlocking liquidity will create more speculation and movement of capital for mercenary traders/speculators to take advantage of.
Sectors to keep an eye on in the gripto market
AI is an obvious one
ChatGPT just the start, there will be more emergent trends
Ponzis related to this should be fun to play - AI level ponzis. Imagine getting paid to use ChatGPT or something equivalent to it, or getting paid to make AI art and the sort of ponzis that can happen from there.
Social tokens - likely we get an outlier that shows what it can be either this year or next
All that matters is that you buy that protocol/influencer’s token before someone else and sell it while people are still buying
Commodities on dexes - How hard and annoying is it to just speculate on the price of rice/wheat/corn/commodities?
Any dex/protocol that can open up casino gambling without getting drained or manipulated to zero on commodities will likely succeed and get plenty of actual usage
Increasing shortages and supply chain problems due to the current hybrid war will give commodities traders advantages and long/short profits next year - bridge this onto the gambling gripto market and we have a likely winner.
NFTfi - NFTperps launching soon, should trigger more copycats
Eventually, big cexes will create perps/degen trading on blue chip NFTs, could be a catalyst for another NFT run down the line
More art collections will emerge, and more speculation will occur - general Cowen-esque hunch is that NFTs are in a way, a cycle behind major griptos.
“it’s too risky to not get NFTs”
NFT valuation thesis thread coming soon
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